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Ian Dewar's Journal
TdF stage by stage 2008
posted by id* at 04:42 PM on October 26, 2007
I wrote a short overview of the new route on the RC home page - you can check it out HERE - but I also have some thoughts on the stages as they go. i'll put up another piece on how to go watch the Tour yourself in a week or so but for now here's my preview:
Mini Stage by Stage analysis
Stage 1, 2, 3 – These are flat, fast sprint stages. GC contenders will need to be careful not to get caught out if (when) the wind picks up. Bad weather could force some interesting racing but overall expect each of these stages to come down to sprint finishes with fast finishers like Tom Boonen, Thor Hushovd, Robbie McEwen, Oscar Freire, Pettachi (if he races) and newcomers like Mark Cavendish, Robert Forster and Benatti.
Stage 4 – 29km TT – this is going to be a very fast TT, but shouldn’t seen huge separation among the major favorites. Look for guys like Cunego and Contador to lose a bit of time and possibly Cadel Evans or Fabian Cancellara to take the yellow jersey, but don’t expect anything real to be decided here.
Stage 5 – another sprint – probably boring – look for a big breakaway to be caught with 3km to go.
Stage 6 & 7 – These will be hard stages, and fast. Both are less then 200km but will be the first chance for the rolleurs – or one day specialists to try and grab a stage. Look for big breakaways and then for teams like Quickstep and FdJ to treat is like a one-day race from the front. This is a great stage for an opportunist like Philippe Gilbert or for a French rider like Silvain Chavalen or David Moncoutee to grab a stage win. Also look for a long breakaway by a Slipstream rider here if they get into the Tour.
Stage 8 – boring, flat, fast, sprint or a break-a-way of guys everyone knows can’t climb
Stage 9 & 10 – there are only two mountain stages in the Pyrenees this year, and only 4 climbs total in the Pyrenees. Of course those four are among the most historic of Pyreneian climbs – the Peyresourde, the Aspin, the Tourmalet and Hautacam. There will be major fireworks on Hautacam, but unless the weather is diabolical expect the major GC contenders to emerge from the Pyrenees still bunched up within 1.5 to 2 minutes of each other. Some major players will drop off, but overall the Tour won’t be won in the Pyrenees and it will be tough for anyone to stamp their complete authority on the race through here.
Stage 11 – 14 – leaving the mountains there is a moderate stage (read breakaway) and three sprint stages. None are over 182km and so will be fast and controlled. For teams without GC contenders, but with sprinters this will be their chance to shine – look for Quickstep, FdJ, Credit Agricole, and Milram to be up front controlling these days. The GC contenders will need to pay attention so no one dangerous pulls back 30 minutes, but overall they should be able to roll in the peloton and will have help controlling the race.
Stage 15-16-17 – Boom, boom, boom. Here’s where the Tour will be won. There are two possible outcomes: 1) a climber blows the peloton out of the water and takes stage after stage opening up a big enough gab after Alp d’Huez to hang on or 2) a TT specialist shows himself to be good enough to stick with the climbers and comes out within striking distance. Either way there will be one guy after stage 17 standing tall and I predict it will be one of the top 3 on Alp d’Huez who wins the race. Even without a climb heavy Tour, stage 17 is tough enough that it will make or break the race. If someone falters on the Alp there will be no coming back and if they can stick close to the front of the stage they can take the race.
Stage 18 – everyone will be tired – there will be a breakaway of a bunch of nobodies and the peloton will roll in 15 minutes later. Go outside and ride instead of watching this stage
Stage 19 – see above.
Stage 20 – 53km TT. The ASO would love for the race to come down to this stage. Their dream is like this year – three guys all within a minute – all have to pull out the race of their lives to win – drama, drama, drama. It could happen, but probably not. Whoever is in yellow in the morning will have to ride hard – for sure – but as mentioned above – either a guy like Cadel is within 30 seconds and should take it back or a guy like Cunego or Contador is over a minute up and should keep it… still better set the Tivo for this one – you’ll want to watch it again.
Stage 21 – enjoy the champagne, die your beard yellow and cruise into Paris like you’re on a Sunday group ride! If you can get over to Paris to watch the 10 laps of the Champs do it! If you can get into any of the after parties try your hardest to get an invite. And if not – make sure you watch the finish and then go for a ride. Nothing seals another Tour de France like an afternoon on a bicycle.
Who’s going to win? Who knows who’s even going to start, but the favorites at this point have to be the same as the top 5 from last year – Evans, Contador, Leipheimer, Zubeldia, Sastre and possibly Valverde even though he’s said he’s training for the Olympics. Throw in Klodi if he even has a team, Popovych, Michael Rogers, Denis Menchov and Cunego if he decides to come back and it’s an exciting group of young stars vs. a few veterans.
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