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Tour de France 2008
posted by id* at 09:44 AM on October 26, 2007
The 2008 Tour de France route was announced yesterday in Paris and it offers up a number of differences from years past – most are designed to have a more open race with more leader changes and with a race heavy final week to keep the race close until the final weekend. This year’s race seems build for climbers who can time trail (like Contador, Valverde & Zubeldia) and not for a time trailist who can climb (Evans or Leipheimer). For someone like Damiano Cunego the race is looking more and more appealing.
Two big changes that figure to change the complexity of the whole race are the elimination of time bonuses and the shortening of the first time trial & lack of a prologue. The lack of a prologue will change the first week quite a bit – and will put the sprinters on notice. Whoever wins stage 1 will wear the yellow jersey, but it remains to be seen if that person can keep the Yellow Jersey through the first time trail on Stage 4 in Cholet. Look for Tom Boonen to be very motivated to win and stay in yellow (and green) for the first week. Whoever wins that TT on stage 4 has a good chance of keeping the jersey through Stage 9 the first major mountain stage. But with no guarantee of keeping the jersey due to no time bonuses each day that first week will be like a one-day classic with both sprinters and one-day specialists trying to stay near the front. There may be a big break-away on stage 6 or 7 but most teams will want to keep that on a short leash to keep things close before the big mountains on July 13 & 14. Because the only real time separation day for the main GC contenders is a short 29km time trial on Stage 4 there should be a large group of contenders all within a minute or two of each other heading into the first real mountain stage.
It’s nice to see 4 difficult stages packed into the final week starting with a mountain top finish on July 20th in Prato Nevoso in Italy, followed by the super-high (2802m) Col de La Bonette-Restefond on Tuesday and Alp d’Huez on Wednesday. Toss in a couple throw-a-way stages on Thursday and Friday and the 53km time trial on Saturday will hopefully be the deciding stage – the ASO is hoping the race will come down to a final day showdown, just like it did this year.
The key stages come late in this year’s Tour and with only one truly difficult stage in the Pyrenees – Stage 10 to Hautacam – there won’t be much separation for the true favorites until the Alps start on Stage 15 and even that stage with an 11.1km finish at 7.1% is going to be more of a drag race to the finish rather than a climbing specialist’s stage. Here’s a stage that helps guys like Liepheimer, Evans and Menchov.
As much as the ASO is hoping for an open race – you’ve got to assume that the key to the race is actually going to be two stages – Stage 17 to Alp d’Huez and the final TT on Stage 20. Both stages will be hard fought with the Alp d’Huez stage certainly the most difficult stage of this year’s race with the Galibier and the Crois-de-Fer on tap before the final 14km race up Alp d’Huez. This is the key to winning the race and Contador will have to open up a sizable gap by the end of this stage if he hopes to win his second tour.
All in all the ASO has created a more classic race – no transfers, no TGV or flights on rest days, no time bonuses. Every day is important and the race looks to be the most balanced in years. In order to win the Tour in 2008 a rider will have to be a complete rider – able to follow fast accelerations throughout the first week and the dangerous stages in the Massive Central, able to follow all but the pure climbers on the moderate climbs and able to push the accelerator when needed on the steep climbs, able to finish near the top of both time trials and willing to take some risks. All in all this should be a very exciting Tour with no clear pre-race favorite.
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Comments (1)
01:58 PM on November 11, 2007 UTC Scott wrote:
Contador will prevail again! Viva Espana!